自动控制文献翻译——摘要

断轨可以导致火车延迟，车次取消或者是发生事故。它影响资源物力的规划，铁轨维修的预算和组织。如果没有评估到要需要替换钢轨的数目，铁轨维修的规划就不可能做好。通常造成断轨的因素有很多，主要有：铁轨老化、年承重超荷、轨道弯曲以及温度变化造成断轨。在本文中，我们运用模糊逻辑模型来获取数据，即在该模型中输入众多变量，然后预测某种类型铁轨断轨的频率。

关键词：断轨；铁轨维修；模糊逻辑

1 引言

铁轨的主要用途是引导火车并且承载其垂直方向和水平方向的重荷，然后运输至目的地。铁轨承载火车，通过一节一节的枕木和碎石向前运输货物。在火车运行中，铁轨的磨损和变形是不利因素[1]。这种现象对铁轨维修费影响很大，并且决定了全线轨道的年限。除了日常维修费用外，由于火车交通干扰引起的任何受损铁轨的替换和修理也会需要很多费用（交通延迟或阻塞）[2]。

铁轨的变形会导致火车过早损坏，因此影响火车稳定性和交通安全性。购买和更换新轨道的费用非常高。据数据显示[3]，轨道费用所占的份额约是整个轨道建设费用的40%。

根据铁轨受损程度，火车运输所受的影响可以是从某段铁轨限速或甚至是直接停运。如果受损铁轨中轨头处无材料缺失，则火车可以限速在5km/h下行驶。如果受损铁轨处有鱼尾板暂时替代，则火车可以20km/h行驶。

受损的铁轨火车对运输的规则性和可靠性有影响，会增加事故发生的风险、提高受损点重建的费用以及增加运输的经营成本。

为了减少总成本，好的策划对铁轨维修必不可少。铁轨的有效维修需要预测到在某特定时期内受损轨道的数目。分析模型可以提供出良好的预测，但是这需要详细的数据支持[4]。当没有足够的数据来构造和校验分析模型时，模糊逻辑模型则可以用来预测受损轨道的数目。模糊逻辑已经被证实是一种很好的数学工具，其特点是可以客观的、不确定的、含糊的和不精确的来模拟进程[5]。

通过归一化输入的变量和规则化的预定数据，任何特定情况下的受损轨道都可以被计算出来。预测受损轨道的数目可以用于轨道存货规划和维修计划。......

ABSTRACT

Broken rails can cause train delays, trains cancelations and, unfortunately, they are common causes of BROKEN RAILSaccidents. This affects planning of a resources, budget and organization of railway track maintenance. Planning of railway track maintenance cannot be done without an estimation of number of rails that will be replaced due to the broken rail incidents. There are many factors that influence broken rails and the most common are: rail age, annual gross tonnage, degree of curve and temperature in the time of breakage. The fuzzy logic model uses acquired data as input variables to predict the frequency of broken rails for the certain rail types on some Sections.

Keywords: broken rails, track maintenance, fuzzy logic

INTRODUCTION

The main task of the railway track is to guide the vehicle and to take their vertical and horizontal loads and transmits them to the substructure. Rails carry railway vehicles and transfer their loads to sleepers and to ballast. Wear and deformation of rails is a negative side effect of exploitation [1]. This phenomenon has a signify cant impact on maintenance costs and determines the lifetime of the tracks on the lines. Any replacement or repair of damaged rails in addition to maintenance costs causes costs generated by train traffic disturbance (delays or blocked traffic)[2].   

Deformations in tracks lead to premature damage to the wheels and the wagons, and thus affect the stability of the vehicle and the traffic safety. The costs of purchase and replacement of new tracks are very large. According to [3] some data, the share of costs for rails is about 40 % of the entire cost of rail construction.

According to the degree of rail defect there can be consequences on train traffic, from restriction of speed on a section to a track closure. If the broken rail is without a loss of material from the rail head, trains can pass over the broken rail with restricted speed of 5 km/h. If the broken rail is secured by temporary fishplate, trains can pass with 20 km/h.

Broken rails are threat to the regularity and reliability of the train traffic, leads to increased risk of accidents, and generates high costs of reconstruction of such sites and increased operating costs of transport.

To reduce the overall costs, good planning is necessary for rail maintenance. Efficient maintenance of the rail tracks demand a forecast on the number of .......